大越期货菜粕早报-20250721

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2700 - 2760. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply of domestic rapeseed has improved. The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower yields in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2620, with a basis of - 102, indicating a discount to the futures. The rapeseed meal price has rebounded, and the spot price has followed suit, with a relatively high discount level [9][20]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 tons, a 228% increase from last week's 0.46 tons and a 58.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory has declined slightly, and rapeseed meal inventory remains low [9]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. - Aquatic Product Data: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [39]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Viewpoint: Rapeseed meal is expected to trade within a range in the short term, affected by factors such as low rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes [9]. - Strategy: Not provided