大越期货豆粕早报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is oscillating upwards, supported by uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market and technical buying. However, high imports of soybeans in July and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract expected to fluctuate between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - For Soybeans: The US soybean market is rising, supported by the rebound of the oil and fat market and technical buying. The domestic soybean market is also rising, driven by the US soybean market. But the increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market. In the short - term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: The market is affected by multiple factors, with the M2509 contract expected to range between 3040 and 3100 [8]. - Soybeans: The market is influenced by various factors, with the A2509 contract expected to range between 4160 and 4260 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is relatively strong in the short - term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, and soybean meal inventories in oil mills also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean market has oscillated downward recently due to the decline of US soybeans [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills support short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will remain oscillating in the short - term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 2880, with a basis of - 176, indicating a discount to the futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 88.62 tons, a 7.76% increase from last week and a 27.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 111, indicating a premium to the futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 657.49 tons, a 3.31% increase from last week and an 11.18% increase from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Data - Soybean and Meal Transaction Data: From July 9th to 18th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From July 10th to 18th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward - trending oscillation [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From July 8th to 18th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different periods from 2023 - 2025 [33][34][38][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Show the data of the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, inventory, and exports [41]. - US Soybean Export Inspection Data: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Data: The peak of imported soybean arrivals was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. - Oil Mill Data: Oil mill soybean inventories increased slightly, soybean meal inventories continued to rise, unexecuted contracts decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling increased. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [45][47][49]. - Pig - Related Data: The inventories of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices rebounded recently, while piglet prices remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. Domestic pig - farming profits rebounded from a low level [53][55][59].