油菜籽到港低于预期，菜粕偏强震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the lower - than - expected arrival of rapeseed, the increase in rapeseed imports, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to have a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend [8][13]. - The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is under short - term control, but the upside potential may be limited due to the lack of tariff on rapeseed imports [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - The arrival of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills decreased slightly, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased from a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [20][22][24]. - Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. The rapeseed meal futures price recovered from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuated slightly, with a relatively high premium [32][34]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the supply of the domestic rapeseed market has improved. The annual rapeseed output in Canada has decreased slightly, and the global rapeseed output has also decreased slightly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators [17][19]. - Aquatic Product Data: It includes the production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimps, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports [26][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 102, indicating a discount to futures [8]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 15,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 228% and a year - on - year decrease of 58.06% [8]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. - Trading Strategies: Futures are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with the RM2509 contract ranging above 2600. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [13][14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has recovered from the bottom and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. The KDJ and MACD indicators show a slightly bullish short - term trend, but the upside potential may be limited [42].