大越期货甲醇周报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will likely maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. In the port market, with stable import arrivals, continuous supply from inland areas, and some cargo originally intended for downstream use being redirected to social warehouses, there is a risk of short - term inventory accumulation. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose, and news about tariffs and crude oil may continuously affect futures trends. The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range, and import arrival situations need to be continuously monitored. - In the inland market, demand has significantly weakened during the traditional high - temperature off - season, and most downstream products are currently in a loss state, which is not conducive to cost transfer. Additionally, due to tight transportation capacity, traders are also cautious in their purchases. However, the continuous external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest and the concentrated maintenance of multiple sets of devices in production areas such as Yankuang Yulin, Xilaifeng, and Shenmu provide some support to the inland supply side. Without prominent contradictions in the fundamentals, industry players are cautiously optimistic about the future market, and there are few short - selling operations. It is expected that the inland methanol market will remain in a stalemate and consolidation state next week. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The report predicts that the domestic methanol market will be volatile in the short - term. The port market may face inventory accumulation risks due to import arrivals and redirected cargo, while the inland market has weak demand but some supply - side support from device maintenance and external procurement. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed various changes from July 11th to July 18th. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.72%, in Hebei by 0.69%, while in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.38% and in Fujian by 0.41%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged. [6] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 0.72% from July 11th to July 18th, while the futures price decreased by 0.21%. The basis changed from - 2 on July 11th to 22 on July 18th. [9] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol production profit decreased by 109 yuan/ton from July 11th to July 18th. The profit from natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit from coke - oven - gas - based methanol decreased by 331 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55%. [13] 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - The CFR China price decreased by 1.10% from July 11th to July 18th, and the CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 0.90%. The spread between them remained unchanged at - 60.5. [16] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 1.02% from July 11th to July 18th, while the spot price increased by 0.72%. The import spread changed from - 44 on July 11th to - 3 on July 18th. [19] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The price of formaldehyde remained unchanged, dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and acetic acid decreased by 2.00% from July 11th to July 18th. [26] 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit decreased by 59 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94%. [27][29][33] 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - The MTO production profit decreased by 54 yuan/ton, and the MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week. [37] 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, inventory increased from 42.62 to 44.6, an increase of 1.98. In the South China port, it increased from 14.14 to 15, an increase of 0.86. [39] 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68% from July 11th to July 18th, while effective forecasts increased by 148.96%. [40] 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. Different enterprises have different maintenance start and end dates, raw materials, and annual production capacities. [42] 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol production enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States have different operation statuses. Some are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are operating at a low level. [43] 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin production enterprises in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have plans for future production expansion or maintenance. [44]