（豆粕周报7.14-7.18）：美豆天气变数仍存，豆类探底回升-20250721

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and South American soybean harvest. Both soybeans and soybean meal are expected to remain range - bound in the short term [10][11]. - The price of US soybeans is affected by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather in the soybean - growing areas. The overall good weather in the US soybean - growing areas suppresses the upward movement of the price, while the uncertainty of the weather and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war determine the short - and medium - term trends of the market [33]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by factors like the arrival of imported soybeans, oil mill operations, and downstream demand. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement of prices [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans. The US soybean market has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting and growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July. The soybean inventory in domestic oil mills has continued to rise since May Day, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has continued to rise in July. The soybean market has returned to a fluctuating pattern due to the decline in US soybean prices [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly fluctuating pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Weather: The weather in some US soybean - growing areas is still variable in the short term, which is bullish, but it is expected to be normal in the short term, being neutral or bearish [9]. - Import Cost: US soybeans have bottomed out and rebounded. The Sino - US tariff negotiation and the weather in the US soybean - growing areas are still uncertain, which is bullish. The import cost is expected to fluctuate, being neutral or bearish [9]. - Oil Mill Pressing: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, but the oil mill's pressing volume remains high, which is bearish. The demand is expected to be weak in the short term, and the oil mill's operation is expected to decline from a high level, being bullish [9]. - Transaction: The enthusiasm for downstream forward stocking has weakened, which is bearish. The market transaction is expected to remain at a low level, being neutral or bearish [9]. - Oil Mill Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills remains at a low level in the same period of history, which is bullish. With the increase in upstream operation, the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to rise, being bearish [9]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4000 - 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: Wait and see [20].