大越期货原油早报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The new round of EU sanctions on Russian crude oil triggered an increase in oil prices, but later it was reported that a six - month transition period was given, and short - term concerns eased, causing oil prices to decline. This week, it is reported that Iran will start nuclear negotiations with some European countries. As the Trump tariff restart date on August 1st approaches, the negotiation results with major economies are unclear, and there is a possibility of a tariff war restart. Oil prices face upward pressure, and speculative net - long funds vary in increase and decrease. There are differences in the outlook for the future. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, with short - term trading in the range of 509 - 518 and long - term waiting and seeing [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Iran has agreed to negotiate with the UK, France, and Germany on the Iranian nuclear program, possibly next week. The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including measures to further hit the Russian oil and energy industries, with a dynamic price cap on Russian crude oil set 15% lower than the average market price [3]. - Basis: On July 18th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.97 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.37 per barrel. The basis was 2.83 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11th increased by 839,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period decreased by 3.859 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 213,000 barrels in the week ending July 11th. As of July 18th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.517 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of July 15th, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The UK Foreign Office on the 18th announced a reduction of the so - called "price cap" on Russian crude oil exports from $60 to $47.6 per barrel and sanctions on Russian intelligence agencies and personnel [5]. - On July 21st, Iran agreed to hold a new round of deputy - foreign - minister - level negotiations with representatives from the UK, France, and Germany of the Iran nuclear deal in Istanbul on Friday (the 25th) regarding the Iranian nuclear program [5]. - US single - family home starts in June dropped to an 11 - month low, but consumer confidence improved in July, and inflation expectations continued to decline. Lower inflation may help the Fed cut interest rates, which could boost economic growth and energy demand [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: Escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict; the start of an increase in summer demand [6]. - Negative Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; continued tensions in US trade relations with other economies; a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.24 (-0.35%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.18 (-0.27%), SC crude oil increased by 9.90 (1.93%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.90 (1.28%) [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.11 (0.15%), WTI decreased by $0.20 (-0.30%), Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by $1.23 (1.76%), Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by $0.76 (1.13%), and Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by $1.23 (1.77%) [9]. - Inventory Data: The API inventory for the week ending July 11th increased by 839,000 barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of July 15th, the net - long position was 162,427, a decrease of 46,947 from the previous period [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of July 15th, relevant position data shows a change in the long - position situation, with an increase in long positions [3][19].