《能源化工》日报-20250721
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-21 03:31
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market has limited supply - demand contradictions, with high - profit incentives for high production. There is a good price upward expectation in the peak season. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see. The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to wait and see due to policy and information fluctuations [23]. - Urea: The core driver of the urea futures market is the change in demand, especially the weakening of agricultural demand. The supply - side surplus pressure and high inventory also affect the market. The new round of Indian tender provides short - term benefits, but the suspension of small - particle bulk exports suppresses market sentiment [27]. - Polyester Industry Chain: In July, the PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to operate PX09 in the 6600 - 6900 range. The PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate TA in the 4600 - 4800 range. The short - term supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve, and it is recommended to sell put options EG2509 - P - 4300 at low prices. The short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to operate PFO9 in the 6300 - 6500 range. The bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee in the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [30]. - Methanol: Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The port basis strengthens, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from July to August, with weak prices [34]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The pure benzene supply - demand is generally good, but the rebound space is limited. The styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate EB09 in the 7100 - 7500 range [37]. - Polyolefins: The supply and demand of PP and PE contract synchronously, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for PP and buy PE within a range [41]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Diesel shortages support prices, but factors such as sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases limit the upward space. The support ranges for WTI, Brent, and SC are [65, 66], [67, 68], and [504, 514] respectively [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: For PVC, the prices of various futures contracts and spot markets have small fluctuations. For caustic soda, the prices of some products are stable, and the export price and profit of some products have changed [19][20]. - Supply: The caustic soda industry's operating rate has increased, while the PVC total operating rate has decreased slightly. The profits of different production methods of PVC have changed [21]. - Demand: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed, and the PVC pre - sales volume has increased slightly [22][23]. - Inventory: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC has changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [23]. Urea - Prices: The prices of urea futures contracts, spot markets, and related products have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [27]. - Supply: The daily and weekly production of urea has changed slightly, and the number of maintenance losses has increased [27]. - Demand: The agricultural demand for urea is weak, and the industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures [27]. - Inventory: The factory and port inventories of urea have changed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the port inventory increasing [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices: The prices of various products in the polyester industry chain, including crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester products, have changed, and the spreads and processing fees have also changed [30]. - Supply: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products have changed [30]. - Demand: The demand for polyester products is weak, and the downstream industries' operating rates have changed [30]. Methanol - Prices: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [34]. - Inventory: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol have changed [34]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol have changed [34]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed, and the spreads and import profits have also changed [37]. - Inventory: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have changed [37]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [37]. Polyolefins - Prices: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [41]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP have changed [41]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries have changed [41]. Crude Oil - Prices: The prices of crude oil futures contracts and refined oil products have changed, and the spreads and crack spreads have also changed [44]. - Market Factors: Diesel shortages support oil prices, but sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases affect the market [44].