Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand"; the negotiation process of tariffs will also affect copper prices, with the main contract price expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short - term, the main contract price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,400, and it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term; the short - term price of aluminum is expected to face pressure at high levels, with the main contract price ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but there may be a significant increase in tin prices driven by market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions from previous highs [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000; there is a risk of a decline in the medium - term [16]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,660 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 144 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,248 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [5]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,391 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,500 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,446 yuan/ton [9]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price is 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 15,544.01 yuan/ton [11]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,650 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is not provided [16]. Fundamental Data - Copper: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - Aluminum: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: In June, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. - Zinc: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; imports were 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. - Nickel: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [9]. - Tin: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [11]. - Stainless Steel: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [16]. Market Analysis - Copper: Macro factors such as US tariffs and inflation, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the copper market, will affect copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the aluminum market, as well as the impact of Guinea's policies on the bauxite supply, will affect aluminum prices [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum alloy market, especially the weak demand in the terminal automotive industry, will affect aluminum alloy prices [5]. - Zinc: The supply - demand relationship in the zinc market, especially the high smelting plant operating rate and the differentiated demand in the primary processing industry, will affect zinc prices [7]. - Nickel: Macro factors such as US inflation and tariffs, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the nickel market, will affect nickel prices [9]. - Tin: The supply - demand relationship in the tin market, especially the supply recovery of tin ore in Myanmar and the weakening demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, will affect tin prices [11]. - Stainless Steel: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the stainless steel market, as well as the price fluctuations of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferronickel, will affect stainless steel prices [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market, especially the continuous increase in production and the limited increase in demand, as well as the impact of news and capital sentiment, will affect lithium carbonate prices [16].
《有色》日报-20250721
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-21 05:03