Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Raw material butadiene price support for butadiene rubber has weakened, and domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - late July. Downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices, which may lead to higher inventory of production enterprises. The tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has recovered, and the orders in the middle and late stages are expected to increase slightly, with the overall short - term start - up rate expected to have little fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,250 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,995 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the position of the main contract is 14,993, down 2,221; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The butadiene production capacity is 147,700 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 67.96%, down 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, down 3,600 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, down 0.33 percentage points; the production profit is - 632 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The production of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces this month, up 800,000 pieces; the production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces this month, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2] Industry News - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points month - on - month and down 11.96 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.92 percentage points year - on - year. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 09:44