Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. External shipments arriving at the port and entering storage have significantly decreased compared to the previous period, and the rise in rubber prices has boosted tire companies' willingness to replenish stocks, leading to overall outbound volumes exceeding inbound volumes [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, enterprise production schedules are stabilizing, and there is an expected slight increase in orders in the middle and late months, which is expected to have a small positive impact on overall production. Enterprises adjust production flexibly based on their own inventory and order situations. In the short - term, the overall operating rate is expected to have little fluctuation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,250, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 8 - 9 was - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,384 lots, and that of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 716 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,770 lots, and those in 20 - number rubber decreased by 2,056 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 20 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,312 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 310 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,762 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 66.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 63.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 48.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.81%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.3%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.29%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.13% [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 10:01