瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the monsoon season brings a good supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries, with a loose supply expectation suppressing raw sugar prices. However, Coca - Cola's switch to using sucrose and a significant year - on - year increase in China's raw sugar imports bring some support from the demand side, causing short - term prices to hover at low levels. - Domestically, there is a divergence in the strength of internal and external prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure is released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, which suppresses sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is recovering, the performance of sugar futures prices is stronger than that of the external market, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the overall trend is regarded as volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,839 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 13 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 337,153 lots, with an increase of 7,565 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 21,437, a decrease of 40; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,908 lots, an increase of 6,702 lots. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,606 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.16%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 6.16%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.25%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to traders, from January 20th to mid - July this year, India's sugar exports were around 700,000 tons. - Internationally, the monsoon season has come, and the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good. The expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, Coca - Cola's switch to using sucrose and a significant year - on - year increase in China's raw sugar imports bring some support from the demand side. [2]