贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250721

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - Silver: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - Price Trend: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - Market Data: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - Aluminum: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - Alumina: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - Price and Market: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - Market Data: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - Industry Chain Situation: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Market Data: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - Market Data: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trend: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - Market Data: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial Silicon: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - Market Data: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].