Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the current good weather in US soybean - producing areas leads to a high good - rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which restricts the market price. The import of soybeans in China has increased, and the short - term supply is loose, putting pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support. The aquaculture peak season boosts rapeseed meal demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is also concerned about Sino - US trade negotiation news. The price of rapeseed meal continues to rise due to trade policy uncertainties [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the good growth conditions of Canadian rapeseed and the possible resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade put pressure on the market. The MPOb report shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, which restricts palm oil prices, but news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sector is positive for the oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and high inventory of rapeseed oil mills restrict the price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure. Recently, rapeseed oil has performed weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9563 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5153 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 312 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 241,486 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 14,661 lots, down 3403 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 548,829 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 35,096 lots, down 5186 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, down 434 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4997.41 yuan/ton, up 10.26 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 97 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 270 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 tons, up 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.25 tons, down 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.2 tons, down 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 58.45 tons, down 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 38.04 tons, up 2.46 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5.6 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 28.2 tons, down 1.1 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 tons, up 1.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.46 tons, up 0.14 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.89%, up 2.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.85%, up 2.06 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.18%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.14%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.75%, down 0.18 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed: On July 18th, the ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly but were far below the daily high due to the decline in US soybean oil futures and favorable Canadian crop weather [2]. - US soybean: As of July 13th, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250721
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 10:06