碳酸锂产业日报-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations have improved, but the actual situation remains weak. Industrial inventories are accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction. The trading suggestion is to conduct light - position, range - bound, and slightly bullish trading while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 146,856 lots, down 4,392 lots; the position of the main contract was 381,185 lots, up 3,880 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,260 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 10,239 lots [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 708 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 1,827 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium manganate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) was 144,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) was 119,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [2]. - Downstream and Application: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) was 124,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million units, up 455,000 units [2]. - Option Situation: The total subscription position was 183,514 lots, down 258 lots; the total put position was 83,530 lots, up 11,051 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 45.52%, up 6.0773 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, up 0.0287 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and two other departments jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy work on further standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - Price and Supply - Demand: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with an increase of 2.53% at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened. On the supply side, due to the rectification of the upstream mining end, the supply of lithium carbonate may decrease. On the demand side, although the overall expectation of lithium carbonate has improved and the lithium price is running strongly, the downstream still mainly focuses on rigid demand consumption, and most enterprises have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium, resulting in a relatively light trading volume in the spot market [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the technical side, the 60 - minute MACD showed that the double lines were above the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converged [2].