摩根士丹利每：周全球视野-关税和通胀

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is becoming evident, with a noticeable increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to high tariff exposure goods [1] - Inflation trends in other regions are more complex, influenced by currency fluctuations, supply chain shifts, and local demand conditions [2] - China plays a crucial role in regional inflation trends, with ongoing domestic deflation and trade uncertainties contributing to downward pressure on inflation in the region [3] Summary by Sections U.S. Inflation and Tariffs - The report indicates that tariffs implemented in the U.S. are beginning to show effects on inflation, with a lag of approximately 3 to 5 months before impacts are reflected in CPI data [1] - High tariff exposure goods are expected to have a greater impact on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) than on CPI [1] Regional Inflation Trends - In Latin America, strong currency performance is leading to lower inflation, with Brazil, Chile, and Colombia experiencing this trend due to currency appreciation and high real interest rates [2] - Japan's inflation is expected to remain stable as the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again this year, influenced by trade uncertainties [2] - South Korea's inflation is similarly constrained by trade uncertainties, despite some resilience in domestic service and food prices [2] China's Role in Regional Inflation - China's ongoing domestic deflation is exerting downward pressure on regional inflation, contrasting with its previous role in maintaining overall inflation levels in the region [3] - The report notes that the strong euro is helping to suppress inflation in Europe, with limited retaliatory tariffs preventing significant inflation increases [3] - The expectation of a slowdown in economic growth is anticipated to strengthen global deflationary pressures, with U.S. inflation expected to rise in the coming quarters [3]