摩根士丹利：通缩到何时，改革方破局？

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the actual GDP growth forecast for the year to 4.8% due to strong growth in the second quarter, reflecting a 30 basis point increase from previous estimates [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights three major economic drag factors: declining exports, weakening fiscal impulse, and persistent deflation [10][14][20]. - It emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address systemic tendencies of overcapacity and to stimulate domestic consumption [45][59]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth rate for China is projected to be 4.8% for the year, up from previous forecasts due to strong second-quarter performance [6]. - The report indicates a downward trend in economic momentum post-first quarter, with GDP growth expectations adjusted accordingly [9]. Export Dynamics - Exports are expected to decline in the second half of the year as the effects of previous export surges fade and global trade softens [10]. - The report provides a forecast of China's quarterly export volumes, indicating a potential drop in export activity [11]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal impulse is anticipated to weaken in the second half of the year, with a more moderate scale of incremental policy measures [14]. - The report estimates a net financing of government bonds, excluding special refinancing bonds, to be around 3.2 trillion RMB for 2024 and 2.7 trillion RMB for 2025 [15]. Deflationary Pressures - Persistent deflation is highlighted as a significant issue, with nominal GDP growth weakening and adversely affecting wage growth [20]. - The report notes that consumer spending, excluding trade-in products, remains sluggish, indicating weak demand [23]. Corporate Profitability - The report indicates that corporate pricing power remains weak, with a significant decline in industrial enterprise profit growth and an expanding profit margin drop [25]. - It highlights the need for improved corporate profitability to stimulate economic recovery [27]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of weakening momentum, with a decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes and prices [30]. - The report suggests that the government may need to implement measures to stimulate housing demand [31]. Structural Reforms - The report discusses the necessity of structural reforms to curb systemic overcapacity tendencies and improve the fiscal system [45]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing social welfare systems to release household savings for consumption [58]. Currency Outlook - The report forecasts a mild appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with expectations of the exchange rate reaching 7.15 by the end of 2025 [93]. - It also notes that the RMB is expected to depreciate moderately against a basket of currencies [93]. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation in driving the next round of industrial upgrades, with a focus on AI and automation [122][128]. - It notes that China has established a robust ecosystem for AI development, which is expected to accelerate investment in emerging industries [130].