Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - Market Analysis: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - Market Analysis: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - Market Analysis: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - Market Analysis: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - Market Analysis: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - Market Analysis: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - Market Analysis: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - Market Analysis: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]
永安期货有色早报-20250722
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-22 01:25