贵金属日评-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio also increase the volatility of gold prices. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Weak US real estate data and domestic political risks pushed the US dollar index down to around 98.3. Potential candidates for the Fed chair support rapid rate cuts, providing potential support for precious metals. London gold rose slightly to around $3370 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes strengthened due to anti - involution expectations. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. This week, focus on the preliminary July PMI values in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Cooling international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation needs, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. The report believes that the long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and monetary system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also increase volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - In Japan's Sunday election, the ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the Senate, weakening Prime Minister Ishiba's power [17]. - G20 finance leaders emphasized central bank independence and cooperation in a joint communiqué, highlighting global economic uncertainties [17]. - The US House China Special Committee chair opposes resuming the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China, and Nvidia has informed Chinese customers of limited supply and no plan to restart production [17]. - US single - family home starts in June dropped to an 11 - month low, with a 4.6% decline and building permits down 3.7%, indicating a potential contraction in residential investment in Q2 [18].