建信期货集运指数日报-20250722

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season is approaching, and the SCFIS has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared to last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between the 08 and 10 contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the shipping season is about to appear. The SCFIS has dropped to around 2400 points. Most shipping companies have slightly lowered their quotes for late July, and the quotes for August from some airlines remain at the late - July level. Historically, the peak usually appears in the third week of July, and freight rates in late August will return to the early - July level. The 08 contract's discount space is limited. Focus on shorting opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage between 08 - 10 contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Overall Market: From July 14 to 18, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade increased steadily, which will support the export container shipping market in the long term [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose, and the German index reached a new high since February 2022. However, Trump's tariff announcement and the EU's counter - measures bring uncertainty. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports decreased by 1.0% [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation is in sync with European routes, and the spot market booking price has slightly declined. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports decreased by 5.2% [9]. - North American Routes: In June, the US CPI increased, and import prices showed upward pressure. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports decreased by 2.4% and 13.4% respectively [10]. - Israeli Ports: Due to the blockade by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the Eilat Port in Israel has stopped operations, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and cause security concerns [10]. - Trade Policies: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may reach a trade agreement with India soon. The US has also set different tariff rates for other countries [10]. - Red Sea Situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels have prohibited ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships have been sunk in the Red Sea [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: On July 21, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 0.9% compared to July 14, while the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 2.8% [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on July 21, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and trading volumes [6].