建信期货原油日报-20250722

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - In the peak season, the single - week crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, but there are no new negatives in the market. Oil prices are still supported and are expected to have an upward space. It is necessary to continue to track consumption and Saudi supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI's opening price was $67.35, closing at $66.03, with a high of $68.16, a low of $64.38, a decline of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 118.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $70.50, closing at $69.23, with a high of $71.53, a low of $67.71, a decline of 1.98%, and a trading volume of 177.53 million lots. SC's opening price was 517.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 512.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.4, a low of 511.3, a decline of 3.70%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots [6] - Supply - Demand Situation: The three major institutions' July reports show little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, except for Kazakhstan, seven other countries have completed compensatory production cuts according to OPEC. There are differences in the prediction of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production among the three institutions this month. IEA expects Saudi production to reach 9.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC and EIA expect around 9.3 million barrels per day. High - frequency data shows that US refined oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel has declined [6] 3.2 Industry News - Iran has no plan to negotiate with the US currently [8] - Turkey hopes to start a new and dynamic stage for the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline [8] - Barclays maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil price at $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [8] - The EU cancels the license for the Czech Republic to import oil from Russia [8] - The UK sanctions Russia's oil export and intelligence agencies, and together with the EU, lowers the "price cap" of Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts, with data sources from CFTC, EIA, wind, Bloomberg, etc. [10][11][18]