建信期货国债日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have all increased, with short-term yields fluctuating within a narrow range and long-term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.675%, up 1.1bp [9]. - The capital market is stable. There were 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short-term capital interest rates have declined across the board, while the medium and long-term capital remains stable [10]. - The recent policy and economic data have provided limited guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, while the rising market risk appetite has suppressed the bond market. The short-term market still lacks a clear direction [11]. - In the long term, considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand in the fundamentals, as external demand risks become more prominent in the third quarter, the results of tariff negotiations become clear, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October. However, if the anti-involutionary measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the risk of a reversal in the bond market trend needs to be considered [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, leading to a decline in all treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have increased, with short - term yields fluctuating narrowly and long - term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp [8][9]. - Capital Market: The capital market is stable. With 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short - term capital interest rates have declined across the board, and the medium and long - term capital remains stable [10]. - Conclusion: The short - term market lacks a clear direction. In the long term, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October, but the risk of a bond market trend reversal needs to be considered if domestic demand and inflation rise [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - LPR Quotation: The LPR quotation in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [13]. - EU Leaders' Visit: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [13]. - Central Bank Policy: The central bank's public solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repos is mainly a long - term measure to optimize the market mechanism and align with international standards, with limited direct connection to restarting treasury bond trading [13]. - Trade Issues: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights [13]. - Hydropower Project: The construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14]. - G20 Meeting: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting this year, China stated that it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 21, including contract information such as settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different maturities and varieties of treasury bond futures, as well as the trends of the main contracts [6]. - Money Market: Relevant data on the money market, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate change, are provided [29][33]. - Derivatives Market: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are presented [35].