建信期货豆粕日报-20250722

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract at 1025 cents. Due to good weather and a slightly bearish USDA report in July, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week and tested the previous low of 1000 cents again technically. Subsequently, positive news emerged. The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's purchase of $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, stimulating the expectation of new - season US soybean exports. However, CBOT soybeans are still expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with an unexpectedly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, 4% higher than the previous week and at a very high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to have no sustained improvement. [6] - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. Firstly, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have continued to rise, driving the bullish sentiment in the whole market. Secondly, the fundamental situation of soybean meal itself is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started to book ships for new - season US soybeans in the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. The price of CBOT soybeans has recovered this week, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the import cost has gradually risen. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The risk lies in whether the future Sino - US peace talks will bring good news, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3091, the lowest price was 3068, the closing price was 3087, with a rise of 17 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 292,691, the open interest was 1,155,465, and the open interest change was 8,587. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3060, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3046, the closing price was 3069, with a rise of 26 and a rise rate of 0.85%. The trading volume was 972,455, the open interest was 1,885,694, and the open interest change was - 21,481. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3098, the highest price was 3108, the lowest price was 3083, the closing price was 3105, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 150,810, the open interest was 632,481, and the open interest change was - 9,420. [6] - External Market Situation: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, and CBOT soybeans were affected by weather, USDA report, trade agreements, and China's purchasing situation. [6] - Domestic Market Situation: Domestic soybean meal was strong due to market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US relations. [6] 2. Industry News - CFTC Position Report: As of the week ending July 15, for CBOT soybeans, the long positions increased by 4,268 lots to 186,780 lots, and the short positions increased by 27,042 lots to 171,486 lots; for CBOT soybean oil, the long positions increased by 5,345 lots to 135,739 lots, and the short positions increased by 382 lots to 71,614 lots; for CBOT soybean meal, the long positions increased by 13,201 lots to 128,060 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,342 lots to 207,802 lots; for ICE rapeseed, the long positions decreased by 15,049 lots to 133,601 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,344 lots to 33,399 lots. [7] - Rapeseed Growth Data: As of the week ending July 16, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 60.65%. As of the week ending July 15, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 64.4%, up from 63.7% the previous week. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages, and the fungicide spraying work was still in progress. [9] 3. Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][17][14]