建信期货铝日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - atmosphere boost pushed up aluminum - related varieties. Alumina was most significantly affected, but its over - supply pattern remained unchanged, so it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices. The rise of aluminum prices was more of a follow - up to the general increase in the sector, and the upside space was difficult to open for now. In the traditional off - season, both supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum were weak, while smelting profits were still high. The market would run strongly in the short - term due to the high macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the performance near the previous high resistance level [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 21st, alumina once hit the daily limit, with the main contract 2509 reaching 3405 yuan/ton, and closing up 8.39% at 3386 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum 2509 rose 1.63% to 20840 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index increased by 38002 to 674818 lots. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 30. Cast aluminum alloy 2511 rose 1.41% to 20165, and the AD - AL negative spread widened to - 540 [8]. - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry chain had no significant changes. The market was mainly stimulated by the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology after the market closed on Friday. A work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals was about to be introduced [8]. - Currently in the traditional off - season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still troubled by the off - season. The operating rate of the aluminum processing link was still weak. With the high absolute price of aluminum, the negative feedback effect on terminal consumption was expected to reappear, and the demand side was expected to continue the weak atmosphere [8]. - The alumina futures price soared, but the spot price increase was limited for the time being. The smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry had exceeded 4200 yuan/ton, at a high level [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly due to the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's research team went to Guangdong and Zhejiang for research, emphasizing promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market, and required accelerating the construction of "good houses" and taking multiple measures to stabilize the market [9]. - Alcoa expected its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April, and it restarted on July 14 after the Spanish government provided detailed reports and consultations on power outage reasons and grid resilience improvement measures [9][10].