大越期货油脂早报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA has a high production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The overall domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production decline was less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase as the production season approaches. [4] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8350, with a basis of 258, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating spot premium. [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9680, with a basis of 119, indicating spot premium. [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Negative Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - Supply: Includes import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26]. - Demand: Soybean oil apparent consumption [16]