大越期货纯碱早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. Although the "anti-involution" policy continuously boosts market sentiment, the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a slight upward trend in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.50%. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 4.17%. The basis was -45 yuan, a significant increase of 181.25% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy soda ash was at a historically low level. The profit of the North China ammonia-alkali method was -135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China joint-alkali method was -95.50 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate was 84.10%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 733,200 tons, with heavy soda ash at 414,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large amount of new soda ash production capacity. The planned new capacity in 2025 was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 94.24% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 157,800 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75.63% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 2.26% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [32]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the soda ash industry experienced fluctuations in supply and demand. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 39.3 million tons, the output was 36.5 million tons, and the supply-demand gap was 1.57 million tons [33]. 3.6 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The "anti-involution" policy boosted market sentiment [3]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, terminal demand declined, inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern had not been effectively improved [4].