大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the short - term driving force is expected to be weak, and the price will follow cost fluctuations. Factors include stable operation of PTA devices, planned commissioning of the Sanfangxiang device, off - season terminal demand, weak polyester production and sales, and increasing inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device commissioning and downstream polyester load fluctuations [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to be strong in the short term. Although the port inventory in the middle of the month is expected to decline, the arrival of foreign ships will increase moderately in the second half of the month. The supply - demand situation in July - August has turned to a tight balance, better than market expectations. Attention should be paid to the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis declined significantly. The mainstream suppliers offered for sale. The current mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 6. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, with no change compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was firm at a high level, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The intraday commodity market atmosphere was good, and the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and fluctuated. The spot in this week briefly strengthened to a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton over the 09 contract, and the basis weakened significantly near noon. In the afternoon, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range. The mainstream spot negotiation was at a premium of 56 - 63 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overseas market price center of ethylene glycol strengthened slightly, and recent shipments were mainly negotiated and traded at 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The inventory in East China is 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, operating rate, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 5.影响因素总结 - Likely Positive Factors: There have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side recently. Several devices in Saudi Arabia have unexpectedly shut down due to power problems, involving a production capacity of about 1.7 million tons. The load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang has been continuously decreasing. A 1.25 million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang is planned to be overhauled in August, which may postpone the restart of the 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: From the demand side, it is certain that the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand [7]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the futures price rebounds [8]