大越期货尿素早报-20250722

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. Although international urea prices remain strong, China's second - batch export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons, falling short of expectations. The domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and inventories have increased again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation. The second - batch export quota is lower than expected, industrial and agricultural demands are weak, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 102, and the premium - discount ratio is - 6.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Chart: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract has rebounded, international prices are strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and the export quota falling short of expectations. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710 (-20), Shandong spot is 1710 (-30), Henan spot is 1720 (-5), and FOB China is 2548 [6]. | | Futures Market | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1780 (+60), 1787 (+56), and 1812 (+67) respectively, and the basis of the UR09 contract is - 102 (-87) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), the UR factory inventory is 1.177 million tons (+142,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 245,000 tons (+40,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |