大越期货天胶早报-20250722

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level, and market sentiment dominates short - term trading. The overall situation presents a mix of long and short factors [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and the tire operating rate is high, presenting a neutral situation. The basis is - 45 with a spot price of 14850, also neutral. The exchange inventory has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased week - on - week and year - on - year, remaining neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. The external environment is bearish [4][6]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - Import: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production has reached a new high for the same period, but tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on July 21, and there is a US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone [8]. - Basis: The basis weakened on July 21 [35]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish Factors: High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices [6]. - Bearish Factors: Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6].