大越期货玻璃早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment, but the fundamentals of the glass industry remain weak. In the short term, the glass market is expected to show a slightly upward trend in a volatile manner [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1081 yuan/ton to 1173 yuan/ton, a increase of 8.51%. The spot price of Shahe Safety big board increased from 1088 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.94%. The main basis dropped from 7 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 857.14% [4]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass big board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1120 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost The report does not provide detailed and useful information on this aspect. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with an operating rate of 75.63%. The number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period [19]. - The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 157,800 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history, and it has stabilized and started to recover [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [25]. - The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.939 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][40]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, and other indicators, as well as growth rates and net import ratios [41].