大越期货白糖早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term outlook for sugar is positive due to the formula change of Coca - Cola, but the 25/26 global sugar market is expected to be in surplus. For example, Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus, and USDA forecasts a 1139.7 - million - ton surplus with a 4.7% increase in production and a 1.4% increase in consumption [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market has good consumption and decreasing inventory. The import tariff of syrup has increased since January 2025. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, with a current discount of about 300, and it is expected to oscillate between 5800 - 6000 to complete the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The formula change of Coca - Cola is a long - term positive factor. However, the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 period. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 811.38 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 million tons of sugar, an increase of 39 million tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 million tons, a decrease of 10.32 million tons year - on - year [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 6120, with a basis of 281 for the 09 contract, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive signal [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May 2025, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 304.83 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive trend [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is not clear, showing a negative signal [6]. - Expectation: Domestic sugar is about to be cleared from inventory. It is currently the consumption peak season, and the market sales are good. The 09 contract is approaching the delivery month, and it is expected to oscillate between 5800 - 6000 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Balance: In the 25/26 period, the global sugar production is expected to be 2.02 billion tons (a record - high second), the consumption is 1.98 billion tons, with a surplus of 270 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%, and the global trade volume is 6200 million tons [36]. - Institutional Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market surplus, such as USDA forecasting a 1139.7 - million - ton surplus, Datagro forecasting a 258 - million - ton surplus, etc. [39]. - Domestic Data: The sugar - crop planting area, yield, import, consumption, and price data from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are provided, showing the development trend of the domestic sugar market [41]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.