大越期货沪铜早报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report assesses the copper market as having a neutral to slightly bullish bias based on various factors. The overall expectation is that copper prices will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals show that smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79620 with a basis of - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price, considered neutral [3]. - Inventory data on July 21 shows a decrease of 100 tons to 122075 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3094 tons to 84556 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending upwards, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The report mentions that domestic policy easing is a potential positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor [4]. Spot - The report provides information on spot prices including the location, middle price, and price changes, as well as inventory details such as type, total quantity, and quantity changes [7]. 期现价差 - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [8]. Exchange Inventory - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [12]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The report presents the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for copper from 2018 to 2024, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [22].