铁矿石早报（2025-7-22）-20250722

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a neutral state [2]. - Port inventories stand at 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish tendency [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production decreases, supply arrival drops, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war eases, neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827, basis is 18; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 887, basis is 78, spot at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - Disk: Price above 20 - day moving average and 20 - day moving average upward, bullish [2]. - Main Position: Net short position of the main iron ore contract, short positions decreasing, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand declines, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, market expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Likely to be Bullish: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [6].