大越期货沪铝早报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a slight premium. The inventory situation is neutral, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - moving 20 - day average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Overall, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, and in the long - term, it is bullish for aluminum prices. However, with a mix of long and short factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is changeable, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 20880, with a basis of 40, showing a premium over futures, rated as neutral [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, rated as neutral [2]. - Price trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, rated as bullish [2]. - Main positions: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing, rated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will trigger changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long - term. With a mix of long and short factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770 yesterday, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price today is 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt inventory is 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory (daily) is 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 to 2024, the production, net import, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of aluminum in China are as follows: In 2018, production was 3609 million tons, net import was 7.03 million tons, apparent consumption was 3615.03 million tons, actual consumption was 3662.63 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons. In 2019, production was 3542.48 million tons, net import was - 0.64 million tons, apparent consumption was 3541.84 million tons, actual consumption was 3610.44 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 68.61 million tons. In 2020, production was 3712.44 million tons, net import was 105.78 million tons, apparent consumption was 3818.22 million tons, actual consumption was 3816.92 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 1.3 million tons. In 2021, production was 3849.2 million tons, net import was 150.33 million tons, apparent consumption was 3994.63 million tons, actual consumption was 4008.83 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 14.2 million tons. In 2022, production was 4007.33 million tons, net import was 46.55 million tons, apparent consumption was 4053.88 million tons, actual consumption was 4083.86 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 29.98 million tons. In 2023, production was 4151.3 million tons, net import was 139.24 million tons, apparent consumption was 4290.51 million tons, actual consumption was 4294.81 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 4.31 million tons. In 2024, production is expected to be 4312.27 million tons, net import is expected to be 196.16 million tons, apparent consumption is expected to be 4502.5 million tons, actual consumption is expected to be 4487.5 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be 15 million tons [24].