沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: Influenced by anti - involution, the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, but positive factors such as good new energy vehicle production and sales data may support the price [2]. - 不锈钢: The stainless steel 2509 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the cost line may continue to move down [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - 镍: On July 21, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 122,550 yuan, up 2,050 yuan from July 18; the London nickel closed at 15,510, up 265. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan, up 1,350 yuan [12]. - 不锈钢: On July 21, the stainless steel主力 contract closed at 12,905 yuan, up 180 yuan from July 18. The average spot price of stainless steel was 13,550 yuan [12]. 3.2 Inventory - 镍: As of July 21, the LME nickel inventory was 207,876, an increase of 300; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,111, an increase of 551 [2][15]. - 不锈钢: As of July 21, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,599, unchanged from July 18. On July 18, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.1478 million tons, a decrease of 19,700 tons from the previous period [4][19][20]. 3.3 Cost - 镍: The price of nickel ore has slightly declined, the freight rate remains firm due to insufficient shipping capacity, and the price of nickel iron is weak, causing the cost line to move down [2]. - 不锈钢: The traditional cost of stainless steel is 12,753 yuan, the scrap steel production cost is 13,531 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,584 yuan [25]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - Likely to be Bullish: Good new energy vehicle production and sales data in June, and the possible impact of the anti - involution policy [7]. - Likely to be Bearish: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, increasing the supply pressure; the price of nickel ore has started to weaken, and the price of nickel iron continues to be stable with a slight decline [7].