大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250722

1. Overall Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [3] - Author: Hu Yuxiu from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is relatively strong, while the demand is relatively weak, resulting in a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The cost of lithium carbonate production varies by source, with the cost of the salt lake end being significantly lower than that of the ore end, and the profit - making situation is also different [8]. - The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,360 - 72,200 yuan/ton [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,046 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,323 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 66,602 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.89%, with a production profit of 473 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 71,484 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.31%, with a production loss of 6,008 yuan/ton; the cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On July 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.30%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation of different sectors varied [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - Expectation: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. 4.2 Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The closing prices of different contracts showed an upward trend, with an increase range of 1.81% - 2.45% [13]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts showed different degrees of change, with some showing an increase and some a decrease [13]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products generally showed an upward trend, such as the price of lithium spodumene concentrate increasing by 2.67% and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.03% [13]. - Positive Materials and Lithium Battery Prices: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [13]. 4.3 Supply - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the production and import volume of lithium ore also changed. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore also had corresponding trends [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export volume of lithium carbonate, as well as the opening rate, showed different trends. The cost and profit of lithium carbonate production also varied by source [26][30]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The production, import, export, and demand of lithium hydroxide, as well as the capacity utilization rate and opening rate, showed different trends. The cost and profit of lithium hydroxide production also varied by source [33][35]. 4.4 Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different trends, which were affected by factors such as raw material prices and production costs [38][40][43]. 4.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including weekly and monthly inventory, showed different trends, and the inventory situation of different sectors also varied [45]. 4.6 Demand - Lithium Battery: The production, sales, export, and price of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends [49]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, profit, production, and demand of the ternary precursor showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also had corresponding changes [55][58]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, production, and demand of the ternary material showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also had corresponding changes [61]. - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron: The price, cost, profit, production, and demand of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also had corresponding changes [65]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [73].