大越期货豆粕早报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: The US soybean prices fluctuated after rising, affected by the overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and technical consolidation. The domestic bean meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the US soybean prices and technical buying, but constrained by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price. It may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybean prices fluctuated after rising, waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybeans oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rebound of US soybeans, but suppressed by the increasing arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean Meal: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory shows a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main contract increased while the funds flowed out, which is bullish. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year increase, which is bearish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main contract decreased while the funds flowed out, which is bullish. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to be range - bound in the short term [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the good recent weather in the US soybean - planting areas supports the short - term strength of the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and bean meal at oil mills has rebounded since May Day. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for bean meal has weakened since May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - festival price of bean meal. Due to the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the bean meal market has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish Factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish Factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From July 10th to July 21st, the transaction prices and volumes of bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From July 11th to July 21st, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal showed different trends. The spot price of bean meal was relatively weak, and the discount to the futures remained at a relatively high level [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From July 9th to July 21st, the warehouse receipts of bean one, bean two, and bean meal changed, showing a general downward trend [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, showing the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [33][34][38]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 show the changes in harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators [41]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 shows that the peak arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no specific position data analysis in the report other than the information about the long positions of the main contracts of bean meal and soybeans mentioned in the daily tips.