大越期货原油早报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term crude oil market is expected to oscillate. The Iran nuclear negotiation will be held this week, and Iran's stance on not giving up the nuclear program will provide some support for oil prices in the short term. However, as the August 1 deadline for the US tariff exemption approaches, there are still many pressures in trade negotiations, and the EU is in a negotiation deadlock, which may bring pressure on future oil prices. Short - term crude oil will operate in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said the Trump administration focuses on the quality of the trade agreement rather than the timing. The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US. Iran will hold a nuclear negotiation with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday, and it still hasn't given up the nuclear program. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.96 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.28 per barrel. The basis was 10.33 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, which is neutral [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 213,000 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.517 million barrels. Overall, it's bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, which is neutral [3]. - Main positions: As of July 15, the main positions of WTI crude oil were long, but the long positions decreased. The main positions of Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - Expectation: Short - term crude oil will oscillate between 505 - 515, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - The market is not overly worried about Trump's tough stance in the letter. Many traders believe he may not impose higher tariffs on August 1. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen downplayed the importance of the August 1 deadline, emphasizing the quality of the trade agreement. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described August 1 as the hard deadline for countries to start paying tariffs [5]. - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, causing concerns about crude oil demand. As the August 1 deadline approaches, Trump's trade negotiation stance has become tougher, and the EU is formulating counter - measures [5]. - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including sanctioning India's Nayara Energy Company for processing Russian crude oil and further lowering the price cap of Russian crude oil. The restrictions on Russian diesel will take full effect next January, and the market doesn't worry too much about supply [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The resurgence of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increasing summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts will boost the market, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the medium - to - long term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.10%, - 0.15%, - 1.57%, and - 0.38% respectively [7]. - Spot market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil changed by - 1.05%, - 0.21%, - 0.01%, - 0.38%, and 0.10% respectively [9]. - Inventory data: The API inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the same period [3][10][14]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of July 15, the net long position was 162,427, a decrease of 46,947 from the previous period [16]. - Brent crude oil: As of July 15, the net long position data was not provided completely, but the long positions increased compared to the previous period [19].