大越期货菜粕早报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, technical oscillations, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals show that the low开机 rate of oil mills and low inventory support the market, but the impact of tariff policies has limited bullish effects. The basis is negative, the inventory has increased significantly week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the main positions' long orders are decreasing while funds are flowing in, and the short - term is expected to return to range - bound due to various factors [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation. The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and trading volume: From July 10th to 21st, the average transaction price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as their trading volumes, fluctuated. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [14]. - Futures and spot prices: From July 11th to 21st, the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices generally showed an upward trend, and the spot discount remained at a relatively high level [16]. - Warehouse receipts: From July 10th to 21st, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased continuously, reaching 0 on July 21st [17]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 show the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. - Import and inventory: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, the inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased slightly, the rapeseed meal inventory remained low, and the oil - pressing volume of rapeseed in oil mills fluctuated slightly [27][29][31]. - Aquatic product data: The prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [39]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data analysis is provided in the content other than the information that the main long orders of rapeseed meal are decreasing and funds are flowing in.