大越期货PVC期货早报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5080 - 5156. The market situation is generally bearish, but there are also positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [7][8][9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is dominant, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In June 2025, the PVC output was 1.99134 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 77.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 340,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 115,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream开工率 was 40.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 34.55%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 76.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [8]. - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 314.87 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 29.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 594.54 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,739.95 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 4.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. - Other Factors: On July 21, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,890 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 228 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 367,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%, the calcium carbide factory inventory was 285,610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76%, the ethylene factory inventory was 81,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.41%, the social inventory was 411,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%, and the inventory days of production enterprises were 6.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29%. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production data of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide method and ethylene method), as well as downstream开工率 and profit data [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. - Price and Volume Trends: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume of the main contract, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the cost, profit, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry and the consumption and inventory data of caustic soda [26][29][31][34][36]. - Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production, as well as the overall PVC capacity utilization rate and production volume [38][39][40][41]. - Demand Trend: Analyzes the demand - side data of PVC, including the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products (such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and infrastructure investment data [43][44][46][48][50][54][56]. - Inventory Situation: Analyzes the inventory data of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - Ethylene Method - Related: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [60][61]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data from May 2024 to June 2025 [63][64].