工业硅期货早报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining weak, and cost support weakening in the flood season. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9115 - 9405 for the 2509 contract [6]. - The polysilicon market has a continuous increase in supply scheduling and a continuous decline in demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 44830 - 46490 for the 2509 contract [8][9][11]. - The main logic for the industrial silicon market is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main risk points include the impact of production suspension/overhaul plans, and the inventory clearance and resumption trends of polysilicon [16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. The demand remained weak. The inventories of polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingots were all at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,789 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - Basis: On July 21, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 9115 - 9405 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The scheduled output for July was predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.1 GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The July scheduled output was 52.2 GW, a 11.28% decrease from the previous month. The production of battery cells and components also showed a downward trend [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,370 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 10,630 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 21, the price of N - type polysilicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [13]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [11]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continued to increase, while the demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continued to decline. The polysilicon 2509 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 44830 - 46490 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The futures closing prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with the 08 contract having the largest increase of 6.39%. The spot prices of different types of silicon also showed varying degrees of increase or remained stable [19]. - The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and the inventories of sample enterprises and main ports also decreased [19]. - The weekly production of sample enterprises increased by 4.93% to 30,420 tons, and the production and start - up rates of different regions showed different trends [19]. Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and the inventory decreased by 22.06% to 265,000 tons [21]. - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery外销 factories decreased by 37.72% to 9.94 GW, and the monthly output decreased by 6.74% to 56.19 GW [21]. - The monthly output of components decreased by 10.62% to 46.3 GW, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [21]. 3.3 Trend Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon, reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures and different product specifications [23]. - Inventory: The historical trends of the inventories of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises are presented, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of the production and capacity utilization rates of industrial silicon in different regions and by different specifications are shown, reflecting the changes in production capacity and utilization [31]. - Component Cost: The historical trends of the costs of main components such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the production of industrial silicon are presented, showing the cost structure and changes [36]. - Cost - Sample Region: The historical trends of the costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are shown, reflecting the cost - profit situation in different regions [38]. - Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations over different time periods [40][43]. 3.4 Downstream Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production: The historical trends of the price, production, capacity utilization, cost, and profit of DMC are presented, showing the production and operation situation of the DMC market [46]. - Downstream Price: The historical trends of the prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are shown, reflecting the price changes in the downstream market [48]. - Import - Export and Inventory: The historical trends of the import, export, and inventory of DMC are presented, showing the international trade and inventory situations of the DMC market [50]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: The historical trends of the prices, supply, and import - export situations of aluminum alloy are presented, including the prices of waste aluminum, aluminum alloy ingots, and the import volume of aluminum scrap [53]. - Inventory and Production: The historical trends of the inventories, production, and start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots are shown, reflecting the production and inventory situations of the aluminum alloy market [56]. - Demand (Automobile and Wheel Hub): The historical trends of the production, sales, and export of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheel hubs are presented, showing the demand situation in the downstream market [58]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The historical trends of the cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon are presented, showing the overall situation of the polysilicon market [63]. - Silicon Wafer: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers are shown, reflecting the production and market situation of the silicon wafer market [69]. - Battery Cell: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, start - up rate, and export of battery cells are presented, showing the production and market situation of the battery cell market [72]. - Photovoltaic Component: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, export, and cost - profit of photovoltaic components are shown, reflecting the production and market situation of the photovoltaic component market [75]. - Photovoltaic Accessory: The historical trends of the prices, import - export volumes, and production volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and welding tape are presented, showing the market situation of the photovoltaic accessory market [78]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit: The historical trends of the costs and profits of the components of 210mm photovoltaic components, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are shown, reflecting the cost - profit structure of the component market [81]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation: The historical trends of the new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations are presented, showing the development situation of the photovoltaic power generation market [83].