美联储的信任危机

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Credibility and Independence - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for effective economic management, and any loss of trust could have severe consequences[1] - Recent comments from President Trump about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell have led to significant market volatility, reflecting fears about the Fed's independence[2] - Market reactions are driven more by perceptions of potential instability in the Fed's role than by actual policy changes[3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risk Premiums - The risk premium associated with institutional expectations has become a key variable in pricing models, affecting asset valuations even when fundamental variables remain stable[9] - Since April 2025, the term premium on U.S. Treasuries has risen, partly due to concerns about fiscal sustainability and increased risk premiums related to institutional trust[11] - The market's sensitivity to negative signals is much higher than to positive ones, leading to asymmetric reactions to political statements[3] Group 3: Implications for Investment Strategies - Investors are likely to adjust their portfolios in response to perceived risks, such as increasing allocations to gold and reducing exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasuries[11] - The process of re-evaluating institutional trust can lead to a self-reinforcing cycle, where market behavior further entrenches the perception of risk[12] - The restoration of institutional trust is often slow and dependent on political stability and market expectations, making capital flows cautious and hesitant[11]