广发期货日评-20250722

Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - Equity Index: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - Treasury Bonds: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - Steel and Iron Ore: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - Chemicals: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].