碳酸锂：碳酸锂供需持续改善，政策主导盘面

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the lithium carbonate industry is continuously improving but still in an over - supply situation. The global lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to reach 2.11 million tons of LCE in 2025, with a year - on - year increase of 21.57%. The global supply surplus is about 120,000 - 280,000 tons of LCE, and 10% of high - cost production capacity needs to be eliminated to improve the balance. The demand from the power battery and energy storage markets shows different trends, and downstream enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy. Policy factors such as the elimination of inefficient production capacity and "trade - in" policies also have an impact on the market [76][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review and Logic Sorting - The report presents the price trends of lithium carbonate, including the main contract price, battery - grade price, and basis. It also shows the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price trends of the LC futures main contract [6]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply - Lithium Ore - The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate trends of lithium ore are presented. A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 [9][12]. 3.2.2. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - The production, import, and export trends of lithium carbonate are presented. A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 [15][19]. 3.2.3. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - The production capacity utilization rate, production, and export trends of lithium hydroxide are presented. A supply - demand balance sheet is provided, showing the demand, production, import, export, and balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 [22][24]. 3.2.4. Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds are presented, including the production profit and cost of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), the cost - profit of lithium carbonate recycling production, the processing cost composition, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [27][29][32]. 3.2.5. Inventory - The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are presented, including the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory by source [34]. 3.2.6. Demand - Lithium Battery - The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and cost trends of lithium batteries are presented, including different types of batteries such as power batteries and energy - storage batteries [37]. 3.2.7. Demand - Ternary Precursor - The price, cost, processing fee, production capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented. The supply - demand balance sheet shows the export, demand, import, production, and balance from June 2024 to June 2025 [43][46]. 3.2.8. Demand - Ternary Material - The price, cost - profit, production capacity, production, processing fee, import, export, and inventory trends of ternary materials are presented [49][51]. 3.2.9. Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - The price, production cost, cost - profit, production capacity, production, export volume, and inventory trends of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [53][56]. 3.2.10. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory early - warning index trends of new energy vehicles are presented [61][65]. 3.3. Futures Market Performance - The trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price trends of the LC futures main contract are presented. The profit and loss trends of long and short positions in the futures market are also shown, with the short - position loss trend being more obvious and the long - position profit trend being more obvious [69][72]. 3.4. Summary and Operation Suggestions - One - month cycle: The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to cautiously go long at a low price, enter the market at 70,000 yuan/ton, with a target of 72,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton and a stop - loss at 68,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the change trend of the number of warehouse receipts [79]. - Three - month cycle: The over - supply situation suppresses the market. It is recommended to go short at a high price, enter the market when the price reaches 75,000 yuan/ton, with a target of 65,000 - 68,000 yuan/ton and a stop - loss at 68,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the elimination of production capacity and supply - side disturbances [79].