Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 22 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi, with Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610 and Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The resistance to raising prices of raw material butadiene has emerged, weakening the cost - side support for butadiene rubber. With the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, the supply is expected to increase. Last week, driven by the macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decline in the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in the inventory of trading enterprises. After the restart of some devices this week, the domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream buyers continue to bargain, which may drive up the inventory of production enterprises. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in orders in the middle and late stages, which is expected to have a small positive impact on the overall operation rate. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 49,351, with a week - on - week increase of 34,358. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 2,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 69.21 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 572.88 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,050 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 67.2 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 375 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,700 tons, with no week - on - week change; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the operation rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the operation rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.85 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 17, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 230,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.59%. As of July 17, the production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250722
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:12