瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250722

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to the normal level, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises tends to be stable, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, with a slight expected boost to the overall operation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,150 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,060 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 165 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 in both increased. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, etc., showed different changes. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers increased by 70 yuan/ton. The prices of butadiene - styrene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical also changed, with the price of cis - butadiene rubber increasing by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market and its main contract increased [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, showed different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.73 tons, while the monthly import volume of mixed rubber increased by 5.85 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate increasing by 0.54 percentage points and the semi - steel tire operating rate increasing by 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased, with the all - steel tire output increasing by 800,000 pieces and the semi - steel tire output increasing by 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying showed different trends, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 2.65 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility remaining unchanged. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 20 - 26, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. The rainfall in most areas in the northern hemisphere affected rubber tapping, while the rainfall in the southern hemisphere had less impact on rubber tapping. As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased by 0.18 million tons, with a decline of 0.28%. The inventory in bonded areas and general trade both decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also decreased. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises increased [2]