瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Today, industrial silicon hit the daily limit, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices. The spot price has not risen yet, and the current overall spot profit is substantial with high market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,655 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan; the position of the main contract is 380,961 lots, down 2,335 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 49,932 lots, up 20,525 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,141 lots, down 252 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. The National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal production verification [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. In the Southwest, production costs have decreased, with varying progress in enterprise resumption. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased, the production profit has declined, the cost has risen, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the demand for industrial silicon has declined. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2]. 3.8 Key Focus - There is no news today [2].