瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations are somewhat restored but still weak in reality. There is an accumulation of industrial inventory, and more effective demand is needed to drive industry destocking. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 148,507 lots, down 1,651 lots. The position of the main contract is 411,638 lots, up 30,453 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 1,000 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The warehouse receipts of GZEE are 9,969 lots, down 270 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,880 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 730 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 6,325 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,878 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons. The monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons. The monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%. The monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 4.93 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 222,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 119,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.05 million yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 70,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, down 0.38%. The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.75%, down 0.04% [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 194,993 lots, up 11,479 lots. The total put position is 89,197 lots, up 5,667 lots. The put - to - call ratio of the total position is 45.74%, up 0.2267%. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.35%, up 0.0343% [2] Industry News - Guangdong and Anhui, as strong provinces in automobile manufacturing in China, will standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, shifting from "price war" to "value war". Xiamen Tungsten New Energy (688778.SH) announced that its operating income in the first half of 2025 was 7.534 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.04%, and the net profit was 307 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.76%. The sales volume of lithium cobalt oxide increased by 56.64% year - on - year, and the sales volume of power battery cathode materials increased by 20.76% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the national economy showed a stable and positive trend, and the more proactive fiscal policy was effective. In the second half of the year, the fiscal policy will continue to play a leading role in promoting consumption and investment [2]