瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250722

Report Summary on the Shanghai Tin Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a light - position long - buying strategy, with a reference range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment has positive factors such as the upcoming ten - key industries' steady - growth work plan and the start of a major hydropower project. The fundamental situation shows limited supply due to delayed mining production in some regions and low tin - ore processing fees, along with weak demand in some downstream industries. Technically, the bullish sentiment is strong, and it has broken through the MA10, so attention should be paid to the resistance at the 270,000 yuan/ton mark [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,270 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,675 US dollars/ton, up 320 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract price of Shanghai Tin is - 280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main contract position is 16,761 lots, down 1,931 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 272 lots, down 222 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,885 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,148 tons, up 51 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 75 tons, down 170 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,791 tons, down 18 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,510 yuan/ton, down 1,310 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,220 yuan/ton, down 2,170 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 53 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,670 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%. In the first half of 2025, the national economy was generally stable and improving, and the fiscal policy continued to be proactive. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" [2]. 3.7 Technical and Operational Suggestions - Technically, the bullish sentiment is strong, breaking through the MA10, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 270,000 yuan/ton mark. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with a reference range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton [2][3].