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沪铜产业日报-20250722
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:21

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].