瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production decreased slightly last week as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity. The overall inventory showed a downward trend as some olefin plants consumed the previously accumulated methanol inventory after resumption, but the methanol port inventory continued to increase. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2430 - 2500 in the short - term [2][3]. - The overall inventory of methanol showed a downward trend last week, but the port inventory continued to increase. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the short - term overall start - up rate is expected to increase slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2457 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 79 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 660,678 lots, an increase of 10,223 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 111,147 lots, an increase of 4086 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,344, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 67 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 223 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 55 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 63.4 tons, an increase of 6.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 15.62 tons, an increase of 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol was 3.44 yuan/ton, down 7.04 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate was 82.69%, down 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, down 1.59 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, down 3.32 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of MTBE was 67.63%, up 0.77 percentage points. The start - up rate of olefins was 85.1%, down 0.05 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1003 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.65%, down 7.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.16%, up 0.39 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 18.99%, up 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 24.31 tons, an increase of 2.19 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% [2]. - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 79.02 tons, an increase of 7.13 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China increased by 6.35 tons and 0.78 tons respectively [2]. - As of July 17, as of July 16, 2025 (the 29th week), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2].